The International Monetary Fund's latest World Economic Outlook database projects global GDP growth of 3.1 percent in 2026, with developing economies significantly outpacing advanced nations across all major regions, according to data compiled from the Fund's April 2026 forecasts.
Developing Asia is forecast to grow at 4.9 percent in 2026, more than 2.5 times the rate of advanced economies, which are projected to expand at just 1.8 percent. India leads among major economies with growth of 6.0 percent, while China is expected to grow at 4.4 percent. The broader developing Asia region, which includes the ASEAN economies, is forecast to grow at a robust 4.9 percent, followed by emerging and developing Europe at 2.6 percent.
The World Bank's Global Economic Prospects report, released in June 2026, offers a more cautious baseline outlook, forecasting global growth at 2.5 percent for 2026 amid the ongoing Middle East conflict and associated disruptions to energy markets. The Bank projects Brent crude oil prices to average 4 per barrel, a 36 percent increase above 2025 levels, with significant knock-on effects for fertilizer and food prices globally.
Among advanced economies, the United States is forecast to grow at 2.3 percent in 2026, accelerating from 2.1 percent in 2025, according to the IMF. The euro area is expected to expand at a more modest 1.1 percent, down from 1.4 percent in the prior year. Japan's economy is projected to grow at 1.1 percent, while the United Kingdom is forecast at 0.8 percent and Canada at 1.5 percent.
Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to grow at 4.3 percent in 2026, slightly below the 4.5 percent recorded in 2025, as higher food and energy prices weigh on household consumption across the region. The World Bank warns that developing economies other than China and India may experience nearly a decade of stalled progress on narrowing the per capita income gap with advanced nations by 2028. Latin America and the Caribbean are forecast to grow at 2.2 percent, while the Middle East and North Africa region faces a sharp deceleration to 1.6 percent.
Global inflation is expected to rise to 4.0 percent in 2026, up from 3.3 percent in 2025, according to the World Bank, driven by higher energy and commodity costs linked to the Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Fertilizer prices are forecast to increase significantly as a direct consequence, with cascading effects on global food supply chains. The IMF's World Economic Outlook update, scheduled for July 8, 2026, will provide revised forecasts incorporating the latest geopolitical and economic developments.
The diverging growth trajectories highlight the resilience of emerging market economies even as advanced nations face persistent headwinds from elevated interest rates, fiscal consolidation, and geopolitical uncertainties. The World Bank has signaled it is prepared to provide up to 00 billion in over 15 months if the conflict and its economic fallout persist, with an immediate 0-60 billion available through existing instruments.
Sources: imf.org/worldbank.org
