UMNO stands to lose more than it gains if it agrees to revive the now-defunct Muafakat Nasional (MN) alliance with PAS for the Johor and Negeri Sembilan state elections, political analysts have said, describing the push as driven more by PAS's strategic needs than any genuine commitment to Malay-Muslim unity.
Hisomuddin Bakar of Ilham Centre was quoted by Free Malaysia Today as saying the fundamental challenge would emerge at the negotiating table, where PAS would seek to contest seats it considers winnable regardless of its track record in the state.
"UMNO would have to surrender seats to PAS even though PAS has minimal electoral contribution in Johor," Hisomuddin told Free Malaysia Today. "This could raise questions among UMNO leaders and grassroots members about the rationale for sharing political space with a party that lacks substantial strength in the state."
Universiti Malaya political analyst Tawfik Yaakub said UMNO would be wasting valuable political momentum by accommodating PAS in a state that has once again become a strong UMNO stronghold.
"Moreover, if UMNO-BN wins and governs Johor, it would be in a better position to implement policies that strengthen Islamic values and institutions rather than rely on proposals put forward by PAS that may never be realised," Tawfik said.
The two analysts were responding to a statement by PAS deputy president Datuk Seri Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man, who suggested that the upcoming Johor polls presented an opportunity to resurrect MN and rebuild Malay-Muslim political strength. However, UMNO president Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi said on Friday that a recent meeting between leaders of the two parties did not touch on the revival of MN.
UMNO-led BN is going solo in the Johor state election, setting up potential multi-cornered clashes with its federal ally Pakatan Harapan (PH) as well as Perikatan Nasional (PN). BN currently holds 40 of Johor's 56 assembly seats -- a commanding majority secured at the 2022 state election -- with 33 seats belonging to UMNO. Of the three seats won by PN that year, only Maharani was a PAS victory.
Asked whether PAS's push for MN reflected a genuine effort to unite Malay-Muslim voters, both analysts said the move appeared to be driven more by political calculation than principle.
"PAS recognises that UMNO is now in a more stable position than it was several years ago when it chose to abandon MN and prioritise its cooperation with Bersatu through Perikatan Nasional," Hisomuddin said.
Both analysts questioned whether PAS would be willing to make reciprocal concessions if MN were revived. Hisomuddin asked whether PAS would be willing to give UMNO greater space in PAS strongholds such as Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah. Tawfik said it was highly unlikely PAS would offer concessions in the three states it governs.
The MN alliance between UMNO and PAS was formalised in 2019 when Pakatan Harapan briefly formed the federal government. The pact collapsed the following year after PAS joined Bersatu in the PN coalition, a move that many in UMNO viewed as a betrayal.
Sources: Free Malaysia Today, The Malaysian Reserve
