Oil flows through one of the world’s most important shipping chokepoints could resume within days if a proposed agreement between the United States and Iran is approved, potentially easing pressure on global energy markets and averting a wider regional war.
Iran’s chief negotiator, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, was quoted by Iranian state television as saying a draft memorandum of understanding would see the Strait of Hormuz reopened in parallel with the lifting of a US naval blockade, alongside new limits on Tehran’s nuclear activities.
According to details briefed by US officials to reporters, the plan would begin with an immediate ceasefire and the reopening of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that normally carries about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas. In exchange, Washington would relax restrictions on Iranian shipping and start a phased rollback of some sanctions, but only after inspectors verified that Iran was meeting its obligations.
The current confrontation began earlier this year when US and Israeli forces launched strikes across Iran on 28 February, triggering Iranian attacks on Israel and states allied to the US in the Gulf. Tehran also moved to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz, demanding new fees from commercial vessels while the US insisted that the route must remain open and free for international trade.
US officials say that once a truce takes hold, a 60‑day negotiating window would focus on reducing Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which Western governments fear could be used to build a nuclear weapon. Their stated aim is for that material to be rendered unusable on Iranian territory and then removed from the country, though technical details over how that would be done remain unresolved.
Those same officials emphasise that any economic relief will be strictly conditional. They were quoted by American media as saying that access to frozen assets and broader financial openings would come in stages and only after international monitors confirmed that Tehran was implementing concrete steps on its nuclear programme and on the activities of allied militias.
Iran insists its nuclear work is for civilian electricity generation and medical research, and it rejects accusations that it is secretly seeking a bomb. Supporters of the emerging deal inside Iran argue that easing sanctions would give ordinary citizens long‑denied economic breathing room without, in their view, forcing the country to abandon what they see as legitimate defence and deterrence.
Araghchi was quoted by Iranian state media as saying there are both “supporters and opponents” of the current text within the Supreme National Security Council, the powerful body that oversees Iran’s security policy. He indicated that a final decision had not yet been taken but suggested the agreement could be approved and signed remotely within days if consensus is reached.
The draft also addresses Iran’s links to armed groups elsewhere in the region. US briefings indicate that Tehran would be required to stop funding and supplying weapons to proxy organisations such as Hezbollah and other militias across the Middle East, an issue that has long alarmed Israel and Gulf Arab states. Iranian officials have not publicly endorsed that clause, and critics in Tehran say reducing support to allies could weaken Iran’s regional influence.
Mediators in Pakistan and Qatar have invested political capital in trying to close the gap between Washington and Tehran, and diplomats from both countries have spoken of “cautious optimism” as the talks have progressed. However, variations of similar understandings are reported to have collapsed late in the process several times in recent months, feeding scepticism among some observers.
Analysts note that even if this agreement is finalised, it would not settle decades of mistrust over Iran’s nuclear ambitions or its rivalry with Israel and US‑aligned governments. Still, reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lowering the risk of direct US‑Iran confrontation would immediately reduce the danger of an energy shock and could pull the region back from the brink of a broader conflict.
