An analyst has highlighted seven marginal seats that could determine the outcome of the Johor state election next month, having been won with slim majorities in the 2022 state polls.
Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar identified the seats as Bukit Batu, won by Pakatan Harapan with a 137-vote majority; Bukit Pasir (Barisan Nasional - 198); Parit Yaani (BN - 294); Tangkak (PH - 372); Serom (BN - 699); Bukit Kepong (Perikatan Nasional - 710); and Jementah (PH - 714).
Hisommudin said the marginal victories meant that no party had a comfortable edge in these constituencies, making them key battlegrounds. He noted that while different results in the seats BN won may not have prevented the party from forming the state government in 2022, BN could have been denied the two-thirds majority of 38 seats it enjoyed. BN had won 40 seats in that election.
The analyst said several factors would determine who emerges the victor, including the number of parties vying for the seats, which could split votes. However, he emphasised that the biggest element was voter turnout.
"In Johor, a low voter turnout would conventionally be to BN's advantage, because it has a wide organisational network in the state and a more stable base of core supporters it can bank on," Hisommudin told FMT. "If the turnout reaches 70% to 75%, PH stands to gain more through the mobilisation of non-Malay voters, young voters, and progressive Malay voters."
He said the biggest challenge each party faced in the seven seats would be wooing first-time youth voters. "This segment of voters does not have a clear record of political support. They're not tied down by traditional loyalty to any party," he added. "This cohort of young voters could become kingmakers who would determine the winner."
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia analyst Mazlan Ali said the situation now differs from 2022 when the country was just recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic. Many outstation voters did not return to Johor, causing turnout to fall to about 54%. In comparison, voter turnout during the general election averaged around 75% in Johor, tipping the balance to PH as it won 13 parliamentary seats in the southern state compared with BN's nine.
Mazlan said the rapid urbanisation of Johor also needed to be considered, as this could influence the leanings of voters, particularly in mixed and urban seats. He agreed that a low turnout would favour BN, but added that if turnout reaches 75% to 80%, PH could potentially wrest marginal seats previously won by BN.
Sources: Free Malaysia Today, Bernama
