The International Monetary Fund said Kazakhstan's economy is projected to grow by approximately 4.6 percent in 2026, driven by elevated oil prices that are expected to support the outlook despite ongoing fiscal consolidation and risks to oil production, according to an IMF team that concluded a visit to the country on June 12.
An IMF staff team led by Amina Lahreche visited Kazakhstan from June 3 to 12 to assess recent economic developments. The IMF said real gross domestic product expanded by 3.7 percent in the first five months of 2026, down from 6.5 percent at the end of 2025, following a force-majeure accident at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium that reduced oil output. Growth in services, transport, construction, and manufacturing helped offset the lower oil production in early 2026, the IMF noted.
Inflation stood at 10.4 percent in May 2026, down from a peak of 12.9 percent in September 2025 but still well above the National Bank of Kazakhstan's 5 percent target. The central bank cut its policy rate by 100 basis points in June 2026 following the decline in inflation and tighter liquidity conditions. The IMF said inflation is projected to remain around 10 percent this year, with expectations still weakly anchored. It recommended that the central bank stand ready to tighten monetary policy if inflation does not continue on a firmly downward trajectory.
The IMF identified several upside risks to inflation, including external price pressures, acceleration of quasi-fiscal activities and capital spending in the second half of the year, and continued utility price adjustments. Planned measures to reduce excess liquidity, including higher reserve requirements and increased issuance of central bank notes, were described as essential to easing inflation pressures over time.
On the fiscal side, the IMF said the non-oil fiscal deficit is projected to decline further in 2026, supported by implementation of new tax codes and conservative spending. The current account is expected to shift from a deficit of 4.1 percent of GDP in 2025 to a marginal surplus in 2026, as stronger exports offset import demand linked to public investment. International reserves remain ample, covering about 10 months of imports.
The banking sector remains sound, with adequate capitalisation, liquidity, and profitability, according to the IMF. Tighter prudential measures, including the activation of a sectoral countercyclical capital buffer on consumer lending, have helped moderate credit growth. Non-performing loans remain low and well-provisioned.
The IMF assessed the outlook as subject to broadly balanced but elevated risks. Downside risks include potential disruptions to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium pipeline and tighter global financial conditions that could weigh on investment inflows. On the upside, sustained high oil prices, if prudently managed, could strengthen fiscal and external buffers.
The IMF team also recommended structural reforms to raise potential growth, including reducing the state footprint, boosting private investment, deepening capital markets, and upgrading infrastructure.
Source: International Monetary Fund.
