The International Monetary Fund published three new economic assessments of African economies on June 12, covering Niger, Guinea-Bissau, and Mozambique. The reports show how growth, inflation and fiscal pressures are evolving differently across the three economies, while higher fuel and fertilizer prices are adding pressure in some cases.
Niger recorded solid economic growth of 6.9 percent in 2025 and is projected to expand by 7 percent in 2026, driven primarily by agriculture and the extractive sector, the IMF said after reaching staff-level agreement on the ninth review of the country's Extended Credit Facility arrangement.
Inflation in Niger declined sharply in 2025, averaging negative 4.7 percent, but has recently begun to tick upward and is projected to average negative 1.9 percent in 2026. The fiscal deficit stood at 2.9 percent of GDP in 2025, below the West African Economic and Monetary Union ceiling of 3 percent, reflecting improved domestic revenue collection and higher crude oil export proceeds.
For 2026, the deficit is projected to widen to 3.4 percent of GDP. Completion of the review, subject to Executive Board approval expected in late July, would enable a disbursement of approximately US$33 million.
In Guinea-Bissau, the IMF Executive Board completed the eleventh review under the Extended Credit Facility, finding that all end-March 2026 quantitative performance criteria and structural benchmarks had been met.
Economic growth in 2025 is estimated at approximately 5.8 percent, supported by robust agricultural production, notably cashew exports, and solid private investment. Growth is expected to moderate in 2026 amid a more challenging external environment, including elevated global fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict and risks to the cashew sector.
The completion of the review enables an immediate disbursement of about US$1.6 million, bringing total disbursements under the arrangement to approximately US$54.8 million. Capacity development support has nearly doubled since 2023, remaining above the Sub-Saharan Africa average.
Mozambique presents a contrasting picture. An IMF staff team that visited Maputo from June 8 to 12 reported that economic activity is gradually recovering from a contraction in 2025, but growth remains subdued. Inflation has risen recently, although from moderate levels.
Fiscal imbalances narrowed in 2025 amid tight financing conditions. The IMF noted that the war in the Middle East, which has driven up fuel and fertilizer prices, is hitting Mozambique at a time when growth remains weak and fiscal space is limited, partly due to recent climate shocks.
The team held initial discussions with Mozambican authorities on policies needed to restore macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability, and discussed a potential Fund-supported arrangement.
Across the three economies, the IMF reports point to different levels of exposure to external shocks. Mozambique faces the clearest pressure from higher fuel and fertilizer prices, Guinea-Bissau remains exposed to fuel and cashew-market risks, while Niger is benefiting from agriculture and oil-related revenues.
Sources: imf.org
